Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
